Sensitive information and the prediction markets can be a winning combination.
Source: More than half of all Polymarket “long shot” bets on military action pay off
is a win rate of 52% mean 2% profit? so much bett big to make big? or do i misunderstnd? gemini+ chat on this.
fta:
“Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.”
…
“The company and Kalshi have long argued their platforms harness collective wisdom to accurately forecast events. But another recent study has found prediction markets reflect the “wisdom of an informed minority” rather than the “wisdom of crowds.”
Only 3 percent of all accounts generate the bulk of price discovery, according to a study led by Roberto Gómez Cram, assistant professor of finance at the London School of Economics.”
