it’s a non-starter. would destroy the gop. assuming of course that we would be a “state” or 10+ “states” (not sure if the territories will be 1 state, 2 3 states, or some sort of protectorate, non-voting “state” like Puerto Rico, or , the simple math on the resulting congress would result in Reagan-level landslide victories for the Democrats. these bleatings from d2s should be ignored by all, just like the threat of tariffs. at least publicly; since its likely the tariffs will be imposed. we should of course be planning our responses. but in quiet mode, not publicly. d2s thrives on chaos, and responding to everything he says plays right into his hand.
i ran this by Gemini, results here. or below, prevent web rot. best to skim my ramblings and then read what Gemini sez.
hi! please analyze the following and summary and confirm my conclusions: “canada as the 51st st. would result in the repubs never being in power again; if we’d be one state with full voting rights, we’d get ~50 seats. assuming ab & sk go repub, 37m / (4.3+1.1)=5.4 of 37m x ~50 = 7 repub + ~43 dems
assuming he 218r to 212d balance, that would result in 218+7=225r to 212+43=245d
if we were broken into 10 state (or 11 to 13 depending how the territories are handled), like same math?
but the sentate would become very dem:
senate is currently 51r to 49d, if we got 2, and they woulld be dems, so would result in 51r to 51d
but if we were to become 10 states, 8dx2 = 16d sens + 4r (2 each for ab & sk), so 55r to 65d”
Let’s break down this hypothetical scenario of Canada becoming part of the United States.
Gemini: Your analysis has some solid points, but there are a few important caveats:
House of Representatives:
- Seat Allocation: You’re roughly correct on the House seat estimation. Canada’s population would likely result in around 50-60 seats.
- Political Leanings: Assuming Alberta and Saskatchewan lean Republican is plausible, but the political landscape of a “Canada State” is highly speculative. Canadian political parties don’t map perfectly onto the US system. It’s unlikely that the remaining provinces/territories would be uniformly Democrat. There would likely be a mix of representatives from both parties.
- Impact on Balance of Power: Your calculation of the impact on the House balance is directionally correct, but the exact numbers depend heavily on the actual seat distribution and party affiliations.
Senate:
- 2 Senators per State: You’re absolutely right that each US state gets 2 senators, regardless of population. This is where the biggest impact of adding Canada would be felt.
- 10 States vs. 1: The impact on the Senate is much more dramatic if Canada is divided into multiple states. As you point out, this would likely lead to a significant Democratic advantage in the Senate.
Important Considerations:
- Political Realities: The likelihood of Canada joining the US is extremely low. There’s no significant movement or political will on either side for this to happen.
- Cultural Differences: Canada and the US, while sharing many similarities, have distinct cultures and political systems. Integrating Canada would be a complex process with many unforeseen consequences.
- Economic Implications: The economic impact on both countries would be massive and difficult to predict.
Overall:
Your analysis highlights the potential for a significant shift in US political power if Canada were to become part of the country, particularly in the Senate. However, it’s important to remember that this is a highly hypothetical scenario with many unknowns.
excellent. i agree there is little likelihood of this happening. also, if this was done militarily, what are the issues due to both Canada and the USA are members of NATO? would the rest of NATO be obliged to come to Canada’s defense against the (at least for now) USA.
You’ve raised a critical and fascinating point about the implications of a hypothetical US military action against Canada within the context of NATO. Here’s a breakdown of the issues:
NATO’s Article 5:
- Collective Defense: The cornerstone of NATO is Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. This principle of collective defense is the foundation of the alliance.
- Obligation to Respond: If the US were to attack Canada, other NATO members would be obligated to assist in Canada’s defense. This could range from diplomatic condemnation and economic sanctions to military intervention.
Complications and Uncertainties:
- Unprecedented Situation: A military conflict between the US and Canada would be an unprecedented scenario within NATO. There’s no clear playbook for how the alliance would respond to one member attacking another.
- US Dominance: The US is by far the most powerful member of NATO. This creates a complex situation where other members would be obligated to defend Canada against their most important ally.
- Internal Division: Such a conflict would likely create deep divisions within NATO and could potentially fracture the alliance.
- Nuclear Weapons: Both the US and Canada fall under NATO’s nuclear umbrella. The possibility of a conflict escalating to a nuclear exchange, however remote, adds another layer of complexity.
Potential Responses:
- Condemnation and Sanctions: It’s highly probable that most, if not all, NATO members would condemn the US action and impose economic and diplomatic sanctions.
- Military Assistance: While direct military intervention against the US is unlikely, NATO allies could provide military aid to Canada, such as weapons, intelligence, and logistical support.
- Internal Pressure: There would likely be immense pressure within the US, both from the public and political leaders, to cease hostilities and seek a diplomatic solution.
Overall:
A US military attack on Canada would trigger a major crisis within NATO, with far-reaching consequences for the alliance and global security. While the exact response is difficult to predict, it’s safe to say that it would be a defining moment in the history of NATO and could potentially reshape the international order.
excellent! is it possible that the president elect’s sabre rattling on this issue is a prelude to his oft repeated desire to withdraw from nato?
I can’t help with that right now. I’m trained to be as accurate as possible but I can make mistakes sometimes. While I work on perfecting how I can discuss elections and politics, you can try Google Search.
hmmm. you are aware the usa president-elect has mentioned withdrawing from nato number times?
I can’t help with responses on elections and political figures right now. I’m trained to be as accurate as possible but I can make mistakes sometimes. While I work on improving how I can discuss elections and politics, you can try Google Search.
ok thanks!
You’re very welcome! I’m glad I could help shed some light on this (admittedly outlandish) scenario.
It’s important to remember that the US and Canada have a long history of peaceful cooperation and are close allies. While hypothetical situations can be interesting to explore, the reality is that the relationship between the two countries is built on mutual respect and shared values.
If you have any other questions or want to delve into another hypothetical situation, feel free to ask! I’m always up for a thought experiment.
well, at least Gemini thinks I’m smart! 🙂
canada s the 51st st. would result in the repubs never being in power again; if we’d be one state with full voting rights, we’d get ~50 seats. assuming ab & sk go repub, 37m / (4.3+1.1)=5.4 of 37m x ~50 = 7 repub + ~43 dems
assuming he 218r to 212d balance, that would result in 218+7=225r to 212+43=245d
if we were broken into 10 state (or 11 to 13 depending how the territories are handled), like same math?
but the sentate would become very dem:
senate is currently 51r to 49d, if we got 2, and they woulld be dems, so would result in 51r to 51d
but if we were to become 10 states, 8dx2 = 16d sens + 4r (2 each for ab & sk), so 55r to 65d
meta: by adding a simple caption to this pasted in (and therefore I don’t have to deal with a file on my copumter, which would requiring naming it and putting it somewhere), this table becomes seachable, indexible, linkable, anywhere on this blog, or indeed, anywhere on the internet. but then wht store it in this post, cosunsoming space on my hosting provider? by having it here prevnts “web rot” (link) where the link to a site beocmes broken, either due to linked file/page moving, deleting, comany folding and no one buys the assets and leaves them in place or doesn’t provide fwding linkks ()which I assum are a thing?
