Source: Trails made by Starlink satellites | IAU
60 up, 1,140 to go. (2020-06-09 – now 40,860 to go, after decision to do 42,000 total)
One point: the link suggests these satellites will fade; a week after launch they were mag. 3 to 6, and seemed to me to be heading dimmer (magnitudes work in reverse, like wire gauge, well, AWG at least… ). So they could be out of naked eye view (>~mag 6) if they go much higher.
But if they’re doing 12000 total over 10 years, 200 launches, 20 a year. So ~2 times a month there will be a multi-week interruption in dark sky astronomy.
Another point: these satellites, as with all that aren’t generating their own light (which is all current satellites), are visible by the reflected light from the just-set sun. Once the sun sets far enough, sunlight doesn’t reach these satellites. Think of being on the satellite, 300km high orbit, the sun sets when *you* can’t see it anymore. And for satellites in such a low orbit, this is not very long, perhaps 1 hour after sunset.
Update 2020-06-09
As of the recent Starlink 6 (2020-03-18), Starlink 7 (2020-04-22), Starlink 8 (2020-06-04), that’s 3 launches in 78 days, or ~25 days between launch. BUT Starlink 8 was supposed to go before Space-X/NASA Demo 2 (took Bob & Doug to ISS, first US launch of people) but was weather-delayed on first attempt (??date??) and then delayed to after Demo 2 due to SN1 ??2?? explosion the night before Demo 2 (which must have made Bob & Dough at least a tittle bit nervous, even given the large diffs between the rockets sitting below them and what blew up in Boca Chica.
And going forward, Starlink 9 is 2020-06-12 (+8 days post Starlink 8) and Starlink 10 is 2020-06-24 (+20 days from Starlink 8, +12 from Starlink 9). Getting close.
Here’s a summary of LEO satellites planned in the next 10 years (Google Sheet)
2024-02-25 – added preliminary info for Chinese constellations (~6-7mins):
https://www.youtube.com/live/8wcoQqrGcis?si=vuPqJnGimJiu-f3v
original table, for reasons. use the google sheets link above.
Already in LEO: ~4,900 (includes Iridium’s 82)
Starlink: 42,000 (was 12,000 initially)
OneWeb: ~2,500 (they’re applying for 48,000!)
Globalstar: 24 (???)
Project Kuiper: 7,000+ ( Amazon / Jeff Bezos? read the 7k+ figure ~2021-11-06)
Facebook Athena: ??? (???)
Thousand Sails: 14,000 China
Est. 2030 Total: ~57,660 (was 22,660 before Starlink’s change to 42,000)
— 2024-08-08 – Thursday – China is putting up another constellation:
Thousand Sails is a Chinese initiative to compete with Starlink. Officials say that 108 satellites are planned for launch this year in separate batches of 36 and 54 satellites; another 500+ are planned for 2025. Ultimately the megaconstellation will contain more than 14,000 satellites (Starlink currently has about 6,200).
Per Scott Manley:
– “Dark Sat” paint job didn’t do as much as expected to reduce light polllution. Other ideas intended, including orienting the solar arrays differently.
– OneWeb likely finished. bankrupt.
Update: As of May/June 2020, almost hit 2/month? Starlink 6 & 7 only seperated by