{"id":45149,"date":"2026-05-05T20:18:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T00:18:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/?p=45149"},"modified":"2026-05-05T20:18:50","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T00:18:50","slug":"more-than-half-of-all-polymarket-long-shot-bets-on-military-action-pay-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/?p=45149","title":{"rendered":"More than half of all Polymarket &#8220;long shot&#8221; bets on military action pay off"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/tech-policy\/2026\/04\/more-than-half-of-all-long-shot-bets-on-polymarket-pay-off\/?ICID=ref_fark\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/longshot-640x465-1.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:161px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Sensitive information and the prediction markets can be a winning combination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/989d335e-275b-4cdc-b51d-4b29fd8895b0?syn-25a6b1a6=1\">More than half of all Polymarket &#8220;long shot&#8221; bets on military action pay off<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>is a win rate of 52% mean 2% profit?  so much bett big to make big?  or do i misunderstnd?  <a href=\"https:\/\/gemini.google.com\/share\/a400b518ed5e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gemini+ chat on this<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>fta:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets\u2014defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less\u2014on the platform <strong><em>had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets <\/em><\/strong>on military and defense actions.&#8221;<br>&#8230;<br>&#8220;The company and Kalshi have long argued their platforms harness collective wisdom to accurately forecast events. But another recent study has found prediction markets reflect the \u201cwisdom of an informed minority\u201d rather than the \u201cwisdom of crowds.\u201d<br>Only 3 percent of all accounts generate the bulk of price discovery, according to a study led by Roberto G\u00f3mez Cram, assistant professor of finance at the London School of Economics.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sensitive information and the prediction markets can be a winning combination. Source:&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[282],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","wpcat-282-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45149"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45152,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45149\/revisions\/45152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ckms.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}